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Thread: Predictions
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01-01-2005, 06:21 AM #1
Predictions
To assert that a theory is unscientific, is not necessarily to hold that it is unenlightening, still less that it is meaningless, for it sometimes happens that a theory which is unscientific (because it is unfalsifiable) at a given time may become falsifiable, and thus scientific, with the development of technology, or with the further articulation and refinement of the theory. Further, even purely mythogenic explanations have performed a valuable function in the past in expediting our understanding of the nature of reality.
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02-01-2005, 11:15 PM #2
Re: Predictions
Originally Posted by shogun7Brian - Newton Abbot, Devon, UK
Retired March 2015
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03-01-2005, 01:13 AM #3
Re: Predictions
Originally Posted by Marc O'Brien
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03-01-2005, 04:08 PM #4
Re: Predictions
it's good to see everything back to normal.
happy new year all.
cheers
eggs
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04-01-2005, 01:10 AM #5
Re: Predictions
Originally Posted by Marc O'Brien
I'm back..What Marc doesn't understand is the fact that at my age and experience is that there is something very different about being at your best once in a while when everything works out … and being at your best by design that is in your control, deliberately and with intention. At those times, in the past at what would have been the worst of times, when everything and everyone seems to be against you, to be at your best regardless. Having your life work the way you want it to be working … operating from the center of yourself … moving out into the world …getting what you want and need … all the while remaining focused, open, calm and ready.
EQUIVOCATE..To beat around the bush?
I have had symbolic logic and Boolean logic as I have had classes in digital principals and applications. In fact, one of my classes is on DDC. So all your logic does not impress this wise old man!
Happy new year to all!Last edited by shogun7; 04-01-2005 at 04:42 AM.
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04-01-2005, 07:27 AM #6
Re: Predictions
I am genuinely impressed by the obvious academic knowledge of the contributors to this thread...I wish I had not wasted so much time at college ...I would like to wish all members a healthy,happy and prosperous new year....the two former being in my opinion the more important....and in closing would just like to mention that
(A) Classification is normally carried out after an observation of the characteristics of a body...observing a reaction to ones own "sense of humour" might be thought of as part of the process of gathering information to make that classification .
(B) Age does not always bring wisdom...(as in my case :-) )
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06-01-2005, 01:10 AM #7
Re: Predictions
Originally Posted by Marc O'Brien
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06-01-2005, 02:25 PM #8
Re: Predictions
Originally Posted by shogun7
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07-01-2005, 01:52 AM #9
Re: Predictions
Inductive and Deductive Reasoning,
Marc OBrion said that " The efforts of all these people came in part out of a need to weed out people like yourself, illogical thinkers, circular reasoners who also, by the way, persistantly commit the Fallacy of Expedience (It doesn't matter how we get there, just as long as we get there, however irrational.).I think it is just too funny that you, of all people, post quotes from famous reasonable persons.
Marc doesn't tell you about human life being full of decisions, including significant choices about what to believe. Although everyone prefers to believe what is true as they see it, we will often disagree with each other about what that is in particular instances. It may be that some of our most fundamental convictions in life are acquired by haphazard means rather than by the use of reason, but we all recognize that our beliefs about ourselves and the world often hang together in important ways. So if I said that I believe that whales are mammals and that all mammals are fish, then it would also make sense for me to believe that whales are fish. Even someone who (rightly!) disagreed with my understanding could appreciate the consistent, reasonable way in which I used my mistaken beliefs as the foundation upon which to establish a new one. On the other hand, if I decide to believe that the Deli Lama was Germain because he lived in Germany, then even someone who shares my belief in the result could point out that I haven't actually provided good reasons for accepting its truth. So when we speak of logic we need to think in terms of Inductive and Dedective reasoning because our primary concern is to evaluate the reliability of inferences, the patterns of reasoning that lead from premises to conclusion in a logical argument. Deductive reasoning says that an argument claims that the truth of its premises guarantees the truth of its conclusion, it. Deductive reasoning holds to a very high standard of correctness. A deductive inference succeeds only if its premises provide such absolute and complete support for its conclusion that it would be utterly inconsistent to suppose that the premises are true but the conclusion false.
This is what Marc would have you believe that we all use in our solutions to the problems we encounter every day, however that's only part of the story. I believe most of us operate in the inductive mode of logic in that when an argument claims merely that the truth of its premises make it likely or probable that its conclusion is also true, it is said to involve inductive inference. The standard of correctness for inductive reasoning is much more flexible than that for deduction. An inductive argument succeeds whenever its premises provide some legitimate (evedence or support) for the truth of its conclusion. Although it is therefore reasonable to accept the truth of that conclusion on these grounds, it would not be completely inconsistent to withhold judgment or even to deny it outright.(As Marc does) Inductive arguments, then, may meet their standard to a greater or to a lesser degree, depending upon the amount of support they supply. No inductive argument is either absolutely perfect or entirely useless, although one may be said to be relatively better or worse than another in the sense that it recommends its conclusion with a higher or lower degree of probability. In such cases, relevant additional information often affects the reliability of an inductive argument by providing other evidence that changes our estimation of the likelihood of the conclusion. This is what I was referring to when I started this post, So Marc "STICK IT IN YOUR EAR!
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07-01-2005, 10:06 PM #10
Re: Predictions
if you two carry on, i'm going to have to start.
i thought we left all this deductive reasoning behind in Marc's mini-split post.
Nothing is right or wrong in philosophy. It is the subject of Man's search for reality.
To arrive at reality, we can only use the method of deductive reasoning, employing the methods, we, as induviduals have been educated to use.
A philosophers utopia is ultimate knowledge, yet this can never be achieved because, you will never know if you know everthing about everything.
Therefore, my synopsis of this post is "boll*&^s".
behave and shake hands
cheers
eggs
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07-01-2005, 11:17 PM #11
Re: Predictions
you need to stop trying to be so logical and take things back to unhypothetic first principles, using the exact sciences.
only then can you be dialectic.
when you are a dialectician, with ultimate knowledge then you can start to expose illogical theories.
if not, in my usual language "there is more than one way to cook an egg" ie there is no right or wrong, only opinions.
and these opinions make the world go round.
without opinions there would be no science, no research and no search for reality/philosophy.
is this deductive reasoning?
cheers
eggs
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07-01-2005, 11:31 PM #12
Re: Predictions
Marc,
If everthing was logical then there would be a 'fix' for all problems. Unfortunatlely there is not.
I agree with what you said here
My top most requirement in life is that those around me are logical.
To me, the only way to behave is to try being logical and to expose that that is illogical.
So my top most requirement in life is that those around me are logical, but the last thing I would ever want to do is upset them or make them feel stupid.
HAPPY NEW YEAR EVERBODYIF AT FIRST YOU DON`T SUCCEED.
DESTROY ALL EVIDENCE THAT YOU TRIED!
and go get a cuppa
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07-01-2005, 11:45 PM #13
Re: Predictions
chillin, looking at you signature. you are a pessimist.
there IS a fix for ALL problems.
in fact a problem is just an opportunity to find a solution.
what we must always remember as fridge men and amateur philosophers is one simple fact:
WE NEVER FAIL, WE JUST FIND WAYS THAT DON'T WORK.
cheers
eggs
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08-01-2005, 01:23 AM #14
Re: Predictions
In other words, what you're telling me is "Marc, to be logical you will have to be logical."
this is your conclusion using deductive reasoning of the premis.
It's better to call it speculation.
if you were a dialectician, speculation, would not be in you vocabulary.
i love philosophy, because it is not a science.
when i was doing the old "A levels" i figured that i couldn't fail.
everybody is correct.
cheers
eggs
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09-01-2005, 12:35 AM #15
Re: Predictions
Originally Posted by eggs
The fact of the matter is that Deduction and induction by themselves are inadequate for a scientific approach. While deduction gives absolute proof, it never makes contact with the real world, there is no place for observation or experimentation, no way to test the validity of the premises. And, while induction is driven by observation, it never approaches actual proof of a theory. The development of the scientific method involved a gradual synthesis of these two logical approaches. which is of course what I have been saying all along. So I call Marc the digital man you know 0,1; yes and no;on, or, off you see it's not the real world where most of us Analog people liveLast edited by shogun7; 09-01-2005 at 02:03 AM.
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09-01-2005, 01:35 AM #16
Re: Predictions
Making them feel stupid is somewhat illogical. They need to know they are stupid. That's if they are stupid (WOW hows that for arrogance?)then you owe it to them to show them their stupidity so that they shall know it without doubt. To make them feel stupid is little weak. If you want them to feel stupid then you might quarrel with them. If you want them to know they are stupid then you must argue with them. To quarrel is to get at other people, to argue is to get at the truth.[/QUOTE]
By whose standard is someone stupid, yours? then that assumes that you are a superior intellect in every way, but that is impossible, nobody on the planet can claim that destinction. Now, granted you may be superior in some intellectual endevers, but so is every body else. A man may not know how to read or write but he can run circles around you in getting from point "A" to point "B". I for one certainly don't feel stupid in the slightest just because you may think so
On the other hand I think you are not stupid ..just ignorant.. about your preceived mental superiority and I feel sorry for you because there is nothing I can say or do to get you to see that all is not balck or white. I can tall you this that you will never find peace until you get a modicum of humilityLast edited by shogun7; 09-01-2005 at 01:45 AM.
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09-01-2005, 02:34 AM #17
Re: Predictions
Originally Posted by Marc O'Brien
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09-01-2005, 03:51 AM #18
Re: Predictions
[QUOTE=Marc O'Brien]Those who make incoherent and illogical statements are considered stupid. All your statements are incoherent and illogical therefore you are stupid.
Yes, since I am able to repeatedly demonstrate the fallacies of your statements I could be considered superior to you. In so far as my definition of logic reaches.
I might make a good example here. The South African universities asserted that since both my english and afrikaans languages were a terrible failure, they would not accept me as a physics student. My school buddies cried shame because they thought if any one of us were to become a great physicist it was me.[/QUOTE}
As I am a compassionate man and I could say something to rip you ...I won't ..except to say I tend to agree with your buddies. you are a pleasure to banter with
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09-01-2005, 08:52 PM #19
Re: Predictions
The South African universities asserted that since both my english and afrikaans languages were a terrible failure, they would not accept me as a physics student. My school buddies cried shame because they thought if any one of us were to become a great physicist it was me.
I was right after all...........you are gifted with thinking prowess and thought processes conducive to a study of physics......and beyond.
But the "stupid" education systems in Africa prevailing at the time were sticklers for stipulating and adhering to "rules"
Like making us wear boaters and jackets in sweltering heat......
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09-01-2005, 11:21 PM #20
Re: Predictions
Originally Posted by Marc O'Brien
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12-01-2005, 12:04 AM #21
Re: Predictions
quote] marc o'brion "If we are going to quote extracts from websites, let's not extract with such random selectivity, we need to try keep the context"
Yes ..let's do that!
.
A young man named Marc received a parrot as a gift. The parrot had a
bad attitude and an even worse vocabulary. Every word out of the bird's
mouth was rude, obnoxious and laced with profanity. Marc tried and
tried to change the bird's attitude by consistently saying only polite
words, playing soft music and anything else he could think of to "clean
up" the bird's vocabulary.
Finally, Marc was fed up and he yelled at the parrot. The parrot yelled
backMarc shook the parrot and the parrot got angrier and even ruder.
Marc, in desperation, threw up his hand, grabbed the bird and put him in
the freezer. For a few minutes the parrot squawked
and kicked and screamed. Then suddenly there was total quiet. Not a
peep was heard for over a minute.
Fearing that he'd hurt the parrot, Marc quickly opened the door to the
freezer. The parrot calmly stepped out onto Marc's outstretched arms
and said "I believe I may have offended you with my rude language and
actions. I'm sincerely remorseful for my inappropriate transgressions
and I fully intend to do everything I can to correct my rude and
unforgivable behavior." Marc was stunned at the change in the bird's
attitude. As he was about to ask the parrot what had made such a
dramatic change in his behavior, the bird continued, "May I ask what the
turkey did?"